Everyone keeps wondering when the next bull run will happen. Every green day we have it seems everyone thinks that it’s the start of the next bull run or the next alt season. And while we will have another bull run one day, people fail to realize the amount of money required to make it happen. It is going to take more than just current crypto holders shifting their money around on exchanges or whales pumping up one minute candles to make a quick buck. It is going to take billions of dollars of new money from new investors. And right now, they are not interested in investing in a volatile investment that just lost half its value or more. Nobody is signing up at Coinbase eager to deposit their paycheck to buy crypto anymore, at least not in the numbers they did in the past.
So how in the world are we going to break this stalemate? After going over many scenarios, I think I have found the most likely scenario, and it goes something like this.
Step 1 – Regulation: We all know regulation is coming. I know some out there with rose colored glasses believe it will be measured, but let’s be honest, regulators don’t work like that. They are going to go after the largest offenders they can and make an example. Not only that, regulators don’t even need to pass new laws. Once they classify most crypto projects and ICOs as securities, they have full jurisdiction under existing laws, and pretty much every project that raised money will be in violation, as will the exchanges.
Step 2 – Price drop: After the regulation nuclear bombs drop, the value in the market will drop even farther than it is now. Probably another 50% at least, if not more in the short term before rebounding slightly. This will be the real crash, the one that the mainstream media will call the bubble bursting. It’s going to make the early 2018 crash truly look like a dip and it is going to chase out a lot of people.
Step 3 – Institutional investors: Now that the price is low and regulation is put in place. Mainstream investors will decide to dip their toes in this new asset class called crypto. The ETF funds we have heard so much about will start to launch as well Bitcoin based hedge funds and other mainstream investment tools directed at crypto.
Step 4- Manipulation back up: Now that the institutional investors have their tools in place, they will manipulate the market back up to start making a profit from the crypto they bought at the bottom. All this manipulation will be similar to what is happening now in crypto, but this time it will all be “legal” (wink,wink).
Now of course, a lot of things can happen in the meantime and can change the landscape. But for another bull run to happen, there needs to be so much new money coming in, this is the only likely scenario I can think of at the moment.