When the Robinhood app announced they would be allowing crypto purchases, a few news sites heralded this news as a way for millions of new people to start pumping money into crypto. At the time I didn’t really believe it, and as it turns out I was right. And the reason is simply because the general public has lost interest in cyrpto for the time being. Even though all of us in the crypto echo chamber still think it’s the biggest thing in the world, the general public has a much different view and only when Bitcoin breaks $20K will that change.
The sentiment of the general public has very much changed from late 2017 when virtually anybody you met was thinking about buying some Bitcoin or had already bought some. Even grandparents who can barely use a modern phone were asking family members about this “Bitcoin thing” they keep hearing about.
But in this modern age, things come and go faster than ever. And for now, most of the public doesn’t care that Bitcoin has already doubled from its low of around $5K. All they think is Bitcoin crashed from $20K. So right now, it is considered a loser unless you bought a long time ago. The notion of getting rich by buying Bitcoin now is not really a part of the narrative anymore among the general public.
But all that can change and it will take Bitcoin breaking through $20K for it to happen. When Bitcoin breaks past $20K it will come back into the public’s eye as a winner again. A way to get rich.
The reason I bring this up, as it may not seem important, but if you are looking for another 2017 style bull run, it’s very important. You won’t get another “alt season” unless the general public starts buying and trading again. And for that to happen, Bitcoin needs to approach and break $20K. The public doesn’t care about blockchain and whether or not some company says they are looking into blockchain. Nobody in the general public cares about that and they never will. It’s the price that brings in new money, not the tech. And not until the price comes back and breaks $20K will the general public catch the fomo.
The only other option is the inflow of institutional money, but I think they are waiting on the sidelines until this SEC fud gets cleared out. There are a reported 80 to 100 subpoenas floating around out there. That translates into tens of thousands of documents and terabytes of information the SEC and CFTC will be going over and who knows what they will find in all of that and what they will do about it. It may turn out to be nothing, but big investors are probably waiting on a signal either way before making a big move.
So overall, this is obviously a macro market observation so it shouldn’t have a huge impact on your day to day trades for now. But it is something to keep in mind for your long term trades and signals to be watching for.